MSU Poll: Young Montana Voters Backed Trump, Political Violence Concerns Rise

Mountain States Poll finds 73% believe U.S. politics more polarized, 83% say political violence increasing

Charlie Kirk and President Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2023 Turning Point Action Conference at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Gage Skidmore)

By Staff Writer
Oct 29, 2025

BILLINGS — A new Montana State University Billings poll reveals a deeply divided state electorate, with President Trump maintaining a narrow approval rating and wide partisan splits on key issues, according to the latest Mountain States Poll released this month.

The survey of 854 Montana residents, conducted October 3-15 with a 3.35% margin of error, shows Trump with a 41% approval rating and 41% disapproval rating, with 14% neutral. The president’s support varies dramatically by party, with 77% of Republicans approving compared to just 4% of Democrats.

Approval of President Donald Trump by age group, according to the 2025 Mountain States Poll. Support for Trump was highest among Montanans aged 40–69, while voters under 30 and over 70 were more evenly divided. Data collected October 3–15, 2025.

In a surprising finding that challenges conventional political wisdom, younger Montanans showed the strongest support for Trump in the 2024 election. Among 18-29 year olds, 62% voted for Trump—the highest percentage of any age group surveyed. Support decreased with age, dropping to 45% among voters 70 and older.

Conversely, Kamala Harris found her strongest support among Montana’s oldest voters, receiving 45% support from those 70 and older—a complete reversal of traditional voting patterns where younger voters typically favor Democratic candidates while older voters lean Republican.

Results from the 2025 Mountain States Poll showing 2024 U.S. presidential election preferences by age group. Donald Trump (R) led among voters under 70, while Kamala Harris (D) matched his support among voters aged 70 and older. Data collected October 3–15, 2025.

“This is the 38th version of the Mountain States Poll,” said Dr. Hope Dewell Gentry, the poll’s director. “Using phone numbers provided by Scientific Telephone Samples with the random digit dialing technique, we collected 251 responses. For the online responses, Centiment used a quota sampling method, which recorded 603 responses.”

Montana Politicians Show Mixed Results

Governor Greg Gianforte holds a 37% approval rating, with 24% disapproving and 27% neutral. Among Republicans, 63% approve of his performance, while Democrats show 53% disapproval.

Senator Steve Daines received the highest approval among Montana’s federal delegation at 31%, followed by newly-elected Senator Tim Sheehy at 34% approval. Congressman Ryan Zinke garnered 26% approval, while Congressman Troy Downing received the lowest approval at just 16%.

Congress itself remains deeply unpopular statewide, with only 13% approval and 56% disapproval.

Stark Divisions on Social Issues

The poll reveals significant partisan divisions on abortion access. Overall, 35% believe abortion should be completely legal, while 12% want it completely illegal and 48% support availability in certain circumstances.

Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, 11% of Montanans report becoming more pro-choice, while 5% say they’ve become more pro-life. The majority report their views haven’t changed.

Change in abortion opinion since the Supreme Court overturned *Roe v. Wade*, by age group. Most Montanans said their stance did not change, though younger adults were somewhat more likely to shift toward pro-choice views. Data from the 2025 Mountain States Poll, collected October 3–15, 2025.

On gun rights, 66% want the Second Amendment kept as-is, while 20% support amendments and just 2% favor abolition. However, 76% support firearm registration requirements, and 50% believe ammunition purchases should be restricted to registered gun owners.

Immigration views show similar divisions, with 46% approving of Trump administration immigration policies. On amnesty for long-term residents, 45% approve granting legal status to undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. for more than 10 years with no criminal record.

Political Polarization Concerns

An overwhelming 73% of respondents agree that U.S. politics have become more polarized compared to previous election years, with broad agreement across party lines. However, only 32% believe they personally have become more politically polarized.

Most concerning to many respondents: 83% believe political violence is increasing compared to 10 years ago, with this view shared across party, age, and education demographics.

Perception of political violence in the United States compared to ten years ago, by age group. A large majority of Montanans—across all generations—believe political violence is increasing. Data from the 2025 Mountain States Poll, collected October 3–15, 2025.

Mental Health and Education

On a more positive note, 72% of Montanans report having “excellent” (33%) or “good” (39%) mental health, with 68% saying they have access to needed mental health services.

The poll shows strong opposition to mandatory religious practices in public schools, with 59% disapproving and only 21% supporting such requirements.

Methodology and Demographics

The poll used both phone interviews conducted by MSU Billings students and online responses through quota sampling. The sample was weighted using Census data and included 767 white respondents, with smaller representations of other racial groups.

Age distribution showed relatively even representation across groups, from 125 respondents aged 18-29 to 167 in the 40-49 bracket. Education levels ranged from 252 with high school or less to 288 with four-year degrees or higher.

The Mountain States Poll, originally started as the Eastern Montana College Poll by Dr. Craig Wilson in 1989, continues to provide insights into Montana political and social attitudes.